STRATEGY CHECK
MACD + 200 MA ("86% win rate")
Momentum · TradingLab YouTube MACD strategy (about 4.6M views) · Original video ↗
Video figures: only the "86% win rate" in the title, no test shown
Backtest result
BTCUSDT spot daily · 2020–2025
This strategy−17.0%Buy & hold+1,114.5%
- Trades
- 16
- Win rate
- 43.8%
- Max drawdown
- −46.3%
- Profit factor
- 0.86
- Annualized return
- −3.1%
- Time in market
- 15.0%
What the result shows
- Buying and holding over the same period returned +1,114.5%. This strategy returned −17.0%, less than that.
- It held a position 15.0% of the time and sat in cash for the rest.
- Only 16 trades in 6 years. With a sample this small, a few trades decide the result.
- Along the way equity fell as much as −46.3% from its previous peak.
Rules
- Entry
- Close > 200 EMA and MACD crosses above its signal line below zero
- Exit
- Stop at the 200 EMA · 1.5R target
- What changed when written as rules
- The "200-day moving average" of the video is entered as an EMA. Entering only on a retest of support cannot be expressed and is omitted
- Test conditions
- BTCUSDT spot daily · 2020–2025 · 0.10% fee per side · 0.05% slippage · entry at the next open after a signal on a closed candle
This is a calculation of the rules on historical prices. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset and does not promise returns. A different symbol, timeframe or period gives a different result. Results claimed by the original sources have not been verified by this service.
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